Wednesday, February 20, 2008

The Cheesehead/Luau Hangover is cheesy/piggy. Or something.

Two more primaries, two more landslides. Obama took another huge bite out of HRC's base, continuing the trend from Virginia and Maryland. I feel really bad for the voters of Texas and Ohio - they're going to see so many commercials, direct mailers and TV interviews in the next two weeks... I'm just glad I've already voted in this primary.

Another thing we're going to see is all of HRC bring the noise. Look out for the new 527s and generalized dirty pool - she's not going down without a fight. The fact that she has to have such huge margins in Texas and Ohio to make it a race again isn't going to help either - that means she's going to have to turn the volume all the way up. It'll be interesting to see if HRC can knock Obama off message.

Speaking of his message, Obama's victory speech was epic, coming in at nearly 50 minutes. People wanted substance to go with the rhetoric? No problem. I didn't listen to all of it. To say I've firmly made up my mind about who should be president is to say that commuting on the Blue Line in the rain is only a tad annoying. (I'm doing that right now (7:13 am) and I have to mention that rain really exacerbates this phenomenon. The train also smells like vomit-garnished wet dog.) I know what it is I disagree with him on. I know what I like. Point is, he's proved that he can get wonky with the best of them.

I think a big story is going to be how much damage the DNC is going to let HRC inflict on the Dems prospects in the general before they say enough is enough. If she has to go too much more negative, John McCain won't have much to do. Maybe that's a straw man, though; the Dems are outdrawing folks to the poll by about 2.5 to 1 or more. I'm trying to see a Repub electorate getting excited for McCain in the face of Obama, though, and I can't do it even if I squint real hard.

Is Obama's clear momentum and growing pledged delegate lead (almost 150 by some counts) going to nudge out some major endorsements? Just unions. High-level individuals? I don't think so. There's still no upside for Al Gore to endorse now that he's a respected man throughout the world. And a John Edwards endorsement is getting problematic. White men that were for John Edwards (white men in general, according to the exit polls) are going to Obama more and more. And Obama is getting the unions on his own. So an Edwards endorsement of Obama might be redundant and Edwards doesn't want to be - and should not be - redundant. On the other hand, if he decided to endorse HRC, all hell might break loose. But that's not likely.

Well... here's to two weeks of nail-biting tedium. Hopefully this thing will wrap itself up on March 4.

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